Hand Review
99 Thin Value Versus a Calling Station on 87422
A medium overpair can value bet river when worse pairs really call.
- Preflop: CO opens 99, BB station calls.
- Flop: Flop 874 rainbow. BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.
- Turn: Turn 2c. BB checks, Hero bets again or checks by size plan.
- River: River 2s. BB checks and Hero considers thin value.
Looks first at hand strength and often misses position, range, and line.
Thin value is not about loving your hand. It is about whether worse hands call a size often enough.
Start with range, sizing, equity, and defense frequency.
Then adjust to the opponent's leaks: over-calling, over-folding, or over-bluffing.
Hand Setup
6-max cash, 100BB effective. BB is a calling station who reaches river with pairs and curiosity calls.
Street-by-Street Training Map
| Street | Training focus |
|---|---|
| Preflop | Preflop pot is about 5.5BB. |
| Flop | Flop bet targets 8x, 7x, 55-66, draws, and sticky overcards. |
| Turn | Turn paired deuce keeps many worse pairs in range. |
| River | River value size should be callable, often around 1/3 to 1/2 pot. |
Pot and Sizing
- Preflop pot is about 5.5BB.
- Flop bet targets 8x, 7x, 55-66, draws, and sticky overcards.
- Turn paired deuce keeps many worse pairs in range.
- River value size should be callable, often around 1/3 to 1/2 pot.
Range Changes by Street
- BB defends many suited and offsuit connected hands.
- Flop call includes 8x, 7x, pair-plus-draw, 65, 55, 66, and traps.
- Turn call from a station does not remove enough worse pairs.
- River checked range still contains worse pairs that may call a reasonable size.
Hand-to-Drill Prescription
| Step | What to do next |
|---|---|
| Read | Name position, stack depth, board texture, and opponent type before reading the conclusion. |
| Replay | Step through each street and state the value target, bluff target, or pot-control reason. |
| Practice | Run thin-value and Value and Thin Value in Practice Mode. |
| Review | Save one offline Analyze Lite note if the hand matches a leak from your own play. |
Alternative Lines
- Check back: lower variance but may miss value.
- Small bet: strong default versus station.
- Large bet: risky if it folds worse pairs.
- Bet-call versus check-raise: usually too loose against passive players.
Exploit Adjustment Table
Next Drills
Practice naming worse calls before river bets.
Open DrillReview river price when facing raises.
Open DrillTrain This Hand
Name worse calls before betting medium-strength hands.
Find value bets, avoid overplaying one pair, and choose sizes worse hands can call.
Adjust versus calling stations, nits, maniacs, and regulars after naming the baseline.
What must Hero name before betting 99 on the river?
At least a few worse hands that call: 8x, 7x, 66, 55, and sticky bluff-catchers depending on player type.
FAQ
What is the main lesson of this hand?
Thin value is not about loving your hand. It is about whether worse hands call a size often enough.
What is the difference between GTO baseline and exploit adjustment?
The baseline prevents obvious exploitation. Exploit adjustments intentionally deviate when an opponent has a clear leak.
What should I record when reviewing a hand?
Record positions, stack depth, board texture, bet sizes, opponent type, your thought process, and the better alternative line.